Pauper Top Deck Averages

I'm starting to think about playing competitively. Unlike casual where focus on your deck's general effectiveness, competitive play is all about understanding the metagame. Competitive play also tends to be more expensive than casual because everybody wants the same (best) cards. For this reason I decided to start with Classic Pauper; I don't want to be able to to use cost as an excuse for me losing. I shall spare no expense! As long as it's common.

I started studying the Classic Pauper Metagame. I found these threads over at pdcmagic very helpful:

Official Classic Deck Index
Pauper Dailies: Metagame Analysis

Reading through the second thread I learned that the top decks of each Daily Event are recorded here.

Clicking through a few of the event records gives you a good feel for the format, but partially because I thought it would be useful and partially because writing code over the three day weekend seemed liked a good idea (for some reason), I wrote some scripts which mine this data and run analysis over it.

Once I got all the data into a clean format I wanted to identify the different types. How many Affinity, how many Infect, etc. My first thought was to add rules to identify each deck like "If deck has 4 couldposts then it's a post deck". But I decided instead to just group by deck similarity based on cards in common. If two decks have more than 50 cards in common (counting main and sideboard) then I consider them to be the same type. This ended up working pretty well and I used this to form groups.

Once I had groups I wanted to see what those groups were. The first take was just dump out all the decklists or a representative decklist, but I realized what I really wanted was an average of the decks. I remember Magic Pro Frank Karsten talking about Deck Averages before.

From July 1st to Sept 7th (just over two months) there were 273 Pauper Daily Events. Each deck finishing 3-1 or better was recorded - 2652 in all. Here are the 16 most common deck types and their average cardlists.

---

#1: Mono White
count: 390 (14.7%)
-- main --
20.9 Plains
3.0 Benevolent Bodyguard
3.4 Icatian Javelineers
3.9 Kor Skyfisher
2.2 Lone Missionary
1.5 Order of Leitbur
3.9 Razor Golem
0.9 Shade of Trokair
3.3 Squadron Hawk
3.3 Bonesplitter
3.4 Journey to Nowhere
0.4 Mana Tithe
1.5 Unmake
2.1 Guardian of the Guildpact
1.3 Knight of Sursi
2.6 Leonin Skyhunter
0.9 Prismatic Strands
0.6 Aven Riftwatcher
0.2 Porcelain Legionnaire
-- sideboard --
2.3 Dust to Dust
0.4 Guardian of the Guildpact
2.6 Holy Light
0.5 Lone Missionary
1.5 Prismatic Strands
0.2 Benevolent Unicorn
1.4 Crimson Acolyte
0.4 Obsidian Acolyte
2.1 Standard Bearer
1.0 Kor Sanctifiers
0.3 Divine Offering
0.3 Circle of Protection: Black
0.3 Serrated Arrows
0.2 Suture Priest

---

#2: UR Post
count: 334 (12.6%)
-- main --
4.0 Cloudpost
4.0 Glimmerpost
7.3 Island
5.7 Mountain
1.4 Terramorphic Expanse
2.1 Mulldrifter
1.3 Steamcore Weird
1.2 Capsize
3.3 Compulsive Research
2.5 Condescend
0.7 Deep Analysis
2.5 Flame Slash
2.6 Lightning Bolt
1.4 Mana Leak
0.7 Mysteries of the Deep
1.7 Mystical Teachings
0.6 Negate
3.1 Preordain
3.2 Prophetic Prism
1.2 Rolling Thunder
0.3 Shattering Pulse
0.9 Staggershock
0.9 Ulamog's Crusher
0.4 Counterspell
1.3 Prohibit
1.0 Firebolt
0.3 Seismic Shudder
0.3 Bojuka Bog
0.4 Izzet Boilerworks
0.4 Mnemonic Wall
0.9 Expedition Map
0.2 Evolving Wilds
0.3 Wayfarer's Bauble
0.6 Serrated Arrows
-- sideboard --
0.8 Ancient Grudge
2.0 Hydroblast
2.5 Pyroblast
0.8 Shattering Pulse
2.1 Stone Rain
0.4 Negate
1.9 Earth Rift
1.1 Gorilla Shaman
1.0 Seismic Shudder
0.3 Deep Analysis
0.3 Snapback

---

#3: Infect
count: 327 (12.3%)
-- main --
15.8 Forest
4.0 Blight Mamba
1.0 Cystbearer
4.0 Glistener Elf
4.0 Ichorclaw Myr
1.7 Apostle's Blessing
0.5 Giant Growth
2.0 Gitaxian Probe
3.9 Invigorate
2.3 Lotus Petal
3.3 Mutagenic Growth
2.0 Predator's Strike
4.0 Rancor
3.9 Vines of Vastwood
3.3 Groundswell
1.6 Rot Wolf
0.5 Llanowar Augur
1.1 Tranquil Thicket
-- sideboard --
2.1 Fog
3.1 Hornet Sting
2.4 Nature's Claim
1.0 Nourish
2.2 Sandstorm
1.2 Apostle's Blessing
0.4 Predator's Strike
1.1 Corpse Cur

---

#4: Affinity
count: 277 (10.4%)
-- main --
1.2 Darksteel Citadel
4.0 Great Furnace
4.0 Seat of the Synod
3.6 Tree of Tales
3.9 Vault of Whispers
3.9 Atog
3.6 Carapace Forger
3.7 Disciple of the Vault
3.8 Frogmite
1.0 Krark-Clan Shaman
4.0 Myr Enforcer
4.0 Chromatic Star
1.3 Fling
3.9 Galvanic Blast
3.6 Springleaf Drum
1.1 Terrarion
4.0 Thoughtcast
0.9 Chromatic Sphere
0.5 Pyrite Spellbomb
0.9 Lotus Petal
0.3 Duress
0.8 Ancient Den
0.5 Flight Spellbomb
0.4 Auriok Sunchaser
0.3 Prophetic Prism
0.3 Somber Hoverguard
-- sideboard --
1.3 Ancient Grudge
0.4 Doom Blade
2.0 Hydroblast
1.6 Krark-Clan Shaman
1.8 Pyroblast
0.9 Duress
1.0 Gorilla Shaman
1.5 Raze
0.7 Relic of Progenitus
0.4 Circle of Protection: Red
0.4 Circle of Protection: Black
0.5 Spell Pierce
0.4 Scar

---

#5: MBC
count: 159 (6.0%)
-- main --
1.6 Barren Moor
21.3 Swamp
3.9 Chittering Rats
2.3 Crypt Rats
1.3 Okiba-Gang Shinobi
3.9 Phyrexian Rager
3.8 Ravenous Rats
3.1 Corrupt
0.8 Doom Blade
2.3 Geth's Verdict
2.0 Grasp of Darkness
3.8 Sign in Blood
3.3 Tendrils of Corruption
1.0 Liliana's Specter
0.8 Echoing Decay
0.8 Disfigure
0.3 Duress
1.4 Unearth
0.7 Wrench Mind
-- sideboard --
0.6 Doom Blade
2.8 Duress
1.6 Echoing Decay
0.5 Geth's Verdict
1.6 Relic of Progenitus
0.3 Crypt Rats
1.5 Wrench Mind
0.7 Disfigure
0.4 Distress
0.3 Okiba-Gang Shinobi
0.4 Tendrils of Corruption
0.2 Nihil Spellbomb
0.6 Serrated Arrows
0.3 Diabolic Edict
0.3 Choking Sands
0.3 Icequake
0.2 Hideous End
0.4 Rancid Earth

---

#6: Goblins
count: 156 (5.9%)
-- main --
15.8 Mountain
0.8 Teetering Peaks
1.8 Goblin Arsonist
4.0 Goblin Bushwhacker
4.0 Goblin Cohort
4.0 Goblin Sledder
3.9 Mogg Conscripts
2.8 Mogg Flunkies
3.8 Mogg Raider
4.0 Mogg War Marshal
2.6 Sparksmith
3.0 Chain Lightning
1.0 Death Spark
4.0 Lightning Bolt
1.1 Jackal Familiar
0.4 Fireblast
0.3 Porcelain Legionnaire
0.3 Sylvok Lifestaff
0.3 Great Furnace
0.3 Kuldotha Rebirth
0.6 Goblin Matron
0.3 Snow-Covered Mountain
-- sideboard --
1.6 Flaring Pain
3.0 Pyroblast
1.9 Seismic Shudder
1.1 Smash to Smithereens
0.7 Sylvok Lifestaff
2.5 Gorilla Shaman
0.3 Sparksmith
0.8 Death Spark
1.1 Flame Slash
0.4 Raze
0.4 Relic of Progenitus

---

#7: Storm
count: 152 (5.7%)
-- main --
3.4 Ancient Spring
2.6 Geothermal Crevice
2.3 Irrigation Ditch
0.2 Island
3.9 Sulfur Vent
3.8 Cabal Ritual
2.3 Chromatic Sphere
3.7 Chromatic Star
0.6 Compulsive Research
4.0 Dark Ritual
4.0 Grapeshot
3.3 Ideas Unbound
4.0 Lotus Petal
4.0 Manamorphose
1.8 Preordain
4.0 Rite of Flame
0.6 Shred Memory
3.8 Sign in Blood
0.3 Goblin Bushwhacker
2.6 Empty the Warrens
2.4 Gitaxian Probe
0.9 Ponder
0.5 Seething Song
-- sideboard --
2.2 Deep Analysis
3.1 Duress
1.4 Flaring Pain
0.9 Shred Memory
0.6 Echoing Truth
1.1 Empty the Warrens
0.3 Pyroblast
0.6 Echoing Decay
0.8 Goblin Bushwhacker
0.3 Irrigation Ditch
0.4 Ponder
0.3 Swamp
0.3 Compulsive Research
0.4 Preordain
0.2 Hydroblast

---

#8: Familiar Storm
count: 134 (5.1%)
-- main --
3.0 Azorius Chancery
3.0 Dimir Aqueduct
2.6 Evolving Wilds
6.3 Island
1.8 Plains
1.5 Swamp
3.3 Terramorphic Expanse
4.0 Cloud of Faeries
1.0 Mnemonic Wall
3.1 Mulldrifter
4.0 Nightscape Familiar
2.4 Sea Gate Oracle
4.0 Sunscape Familiar
4.0 Compulsive Research
3.2 Deep Analysis
2.0 Foresee
4.0 Snap
3.0 Temporal Fissure
0.5 Toils of Night and Day
0.4 Lotus Petal
0.9 Probe
1.3 Scarscale Ritual
0.4 Preordain
-- sideboard --
2.4 Hydroblast
2.8 Lone Missionary
1.9 Prismatic Strands
1.3 Vedalken Outlander
0.4 Circle of Protection: Red
0.4 Galina's Knight
0.3 Benevolent Unicorn
0.8 Diabolic Edict
0.6 Echoing Truth
0.3 Mana Leak
0.3 Duress
0.6 Snuff Out
1.0 Standard Bearer
0.5 Echoing Decay

---

#9: RDW
count: 121 (4.6%)
-- main --
3.2 Forgotten Cave
16.7 Mountain
3.7 Keldon Marauders
2.2 Kiln Fiend
4.0 Chain Lightning
3.9 Fireblast
3.4 Incinerate
4.0 Lava Spike
4.0 Lightning Bolt
3.6 Needle Drop
4.0 Rift Bolt
3.5 Searing Blaze
0.9 Staggershock
1.2 Firebolt
0.3 Seal of Fire
0.3 Volcanic Hammer
0.2 Scent of Cinder
-- sideboard --
3.0 Martyr of Ashes
1.5 Pyroblast
2.8 Molten Rain
2.8 Smash to Smithereens
0.6 Relic of Progenitus
0.5 Raze
0.4 Seismic Shudder
0.3 Gorilla Shaman
0.9 Flaring Pain
0.3 Kiln Fiend
0.2 Searing Blaze
0.2 Staggershock

---

#10: GB Tortured Existence
count: 79 (3.0%)
-- main --
8.1 Forest
1.9 Golgari Rot Farm
10.0 Swamp
2.6 Terramorphic Expanse
3.0 Basking Rootwalla
0.9 Crypt Rats
3.1 Fume Spitter
2.4 Golgari Brownscale
3.1 Grave Scrabbler
4.0 Putrid Leech
4.0 Stinkweed Imp
3.0 Vampire Hounds
4.0 Wild Mongrel
0.5 Yavimaya Elder
1.6 Echoing Decay
0.4 Raven's Crime
4.0 Tortured Existence
0.8 Sylvok Replica
0.7 Brindle Boar
0.4 Festercreep
0.3 Evolving Wilds
0.6 Diabolic Edict
0.2 Gathan Raiders
-- sideboard --
0.8 Augur of Skulls
0.8 Brindle Boar
1.2 Diabolic Edict
2.3 Duress
2.0 Echoing Decay
1.1 Festercreep
0.8 Fume Spitter
0.7 Golgari Brownscale
1.7 Snuff Out
1.1 Sylvok Replica
0.4 Raven's Crime
0.3 Yavimaya Elder
0.3 Doom Blade
0.2 Grasp of Darkness
0.5 Nature's Claim

---

#11: MUC Type1
count: 66 (2.5%)
-- main --
18.8 Island
3.9 Cloud of Faeries
3.4 Mulldrifter
3.9 Ninja of the Deep Hours
4.0 Spellstutter Sprite
4.0 Counterspell
3.2 Exclude
3.8 Force Spike
2.8 Gitaxian Probe
3.1 Opt
1.0 Rune Snag
3.5 Snap
0.5 Brainstorm
1.2 Quicksand
0.5 Spire Golem
0.7 Preordain
0.3 Mana Leak
0.3 Think Twice
-- sideboard --
3.6 Echoing Truth
0.4 Exclude
3.5 Sea Sprite
0.9 Steel Sabotage
0.9 Hydroblast
1.5 Bonesplitter
2.0 Relic of Progenitus
0.3 Serrated Arrows
0.2 Spire Golem
0.5 Dispel

---

#12: MUC Type 2
count: 55 (2.1%)
-- main --
18.6 Island
3.9 Quicksand
1.6 Mulldrifter
3.1 Ninja of the Deep Hours
3.7 Pestermite
0.8 Sentinels of Glen Elendra
4.0 Spellstutter Sprite
3.9 Spire Golem
0.3 Boomerang
4.0 Counterspell
0.9 Dispel
1.9 Exclude
0.7 Mana Leak
0.4 Repeal
1.7 Rune Snag
1.0 Serrated Arrows
3.6 Think Twice
1.1 Condescend
0.3 Deprive
0.3 Errant Ephemeron
0.6 Preordain
0.4 Cloud of Faeries
0.3 Force Spike
1.0 Echoing Truth
0.2 Prohibit
-- sideboard --
0.6 Boomerang
0.6 Deep Analysis
1.4 Dispel
2.8 Hydroblast
0.2 Repeal
1.4 Serrated Arrows
0.5 Mulldrifter
0.9 Unsummon
0.6 Echoing Truth
1.3 Oona's Gatewarden
0.5 Relic of Progenitus
0.9 Sea Sprite
0.5 Steel Sabotage
0.2 Annul
0.6 Negate
0.3 Curse of Chains
0.2 Errant Ephemeron

---

#13: MUC type 3
count: 34 (1.3%)
-- main --
19.9 Island
3.8 Quicksand
0.3 Sea Gate Oracle
4.0 Spellstutter Sprite
4.0 Spire Golem
4.0 Counterspell
0.3 Deprive
0.7 Exclude
0.8 Oona's Grace
0.5 Piracy Charm
2.8 Think Twice
2.4 Mulldrifter
3.3 Ninja of the Deep Hours
3.4 Pestermite
0.2 Sentinels of Glen Elendra
2.9 Condescend
0.5 Dispel
1.4 Echoing Truth
0.5 Cloud of Faeries
1.5 Errant Ephemeron
0.3 Preordain
0.4 Force Spike
0.4 Serrated Arrows
0.3 Memory Lapse
-- sideboard --
2.4 Dispel
1.1 Errant Ephemeron
0.2 Faerie Trickery
1.3 Hydroblast
3.2 Oona's Gatewarden
0.9 Serrated Arrows
0.5 Deep Analysis
1.0 Echoing Truth
0.7 Mulldrifter
0.3 Unsummon
0.6 Vapor Snag
0.4 Boomerang
0.2 Trinket Mage
0.9 Negate
0.2 Sea Sprite
0.3 Relic of Progenitus

---

#14: R Storm
count: 38 (1.4%)
-- main --
3.7 Forgotten Cave
11.6 Mountain
4.0 Goblin Bushwhacker
4.0 Kiln Fiend
3.8 Crimson Wisps
3.9 Desperate Ritual
4.0 Empty the Warrens
4.0 Gitaxian Probe
4.0 Lava Dart
3.8 Lotus Petal
4.0 Manamorphose
4.0 Rite of Flame
4.0 Spark Spray
0.6 Pyretic Ritual
0.4 Seething Song
-- sideboard --
2.6 Flaring Pain
3.3 Martyr of Ashes
3.3 Pyroblast
0.2 Raze
2.2 Gorilla Shaman
1.8 Mogg Raider
0.7 Flame Slash

---

#15: G Post
count: 37 (1.4%)
-- main --
4.0 Cloudpost
10.7 Forest
4.0 Glimmerpost
2.2 Tranquil Thicket
4.0 Aurochs Herd
0.9 Fangren Marauder
3.1 Fierce Empath
3.4 Llanowar Elves
3.9 Overgrown Battlement
0.6 Thundering Tanadon
2.2 Ulamog's Crusher
4.0 Wall of Roots
3.2 Mwonvuli Acid-Moss
3.9 Reap and Sow
2.2 Thermokarst
0.2 Citanul Woodreaders
0.9 Krosan Tusker
2.0 Crop Rotation
0.9 Tree of Tales
0.9 Halimar Depths
0.2 Sejiri Steppe
1.1 Serrated Arrows
-- sideboard --
0.8 Fangren Marauder
2.4 Moment's Peace
0.5 Nature's Claim
3.0 Sandstorm
1.2 Serrated Arrows
0.9 Gleeful Sabotage
0.4 Penumbra Spider
0.2 Lignify
0.5 Drain the Well
1.3 Wickerbough Elder
1.3 Thermokarst
0.6 Mwonvuli Acid-Moss
0.4 Fog
0.3 Deadly Recluse

---

#16: GW Cloak
count: 35 (1.3%)
-- main --
7.2 Forest
8.2 Plains
3.4 Terramorphic Expanse
4.0 Bant Sureblade
4.0 Guardian of the Guildpact
2.7 Llanowar Knight
4.0 Qasali Pridemage
3.1 Safehold Elite
3.9 Steward of Valeron
4.0 Armadillo Cloak
2.9 Journey to Nowhere
3.9 Shield of the Oversoul
0.8 Prismatic Strands
3.5 Vines of Vastwood
2.6 Wildfield Borderpost
0.3 Snow-Covered Forest
0.4 Valeron Outlander
0.5 Evolving Wilds
-- sideboard --
3.8 Dust to Dust
2.9 Circle of Protection: Red
3.0 Holy Light
0.7 Journey to Nowhere
1.2 Obsidian Acolyte
1.8 Prismatic Strands
0.5 Relic of Progenitus

---

Interestingly, MUC was split into three different "sub-groups". All the other decks seem to fit within the same group. If a card's average was less than 0.2 it was omitted.

Those were the most common decks that win in Daily Events, but what I didn't show were the least common. Who was able to 3-1 a Daily Event vs the usual suspects with something different? Join me next week for an Ode to Rouge!

---

Bonus section!
Top 100 cards excluding basic land:

1) Pyroblast (2277)
2) Lightning Bolt (2125)
3) Hydroblast (2096)
4) Mulldrifter (1913)
5) Lotus Petal (1905)
6) Duress (1856)
7) Compulsive Research (1820)
8) Chromatic Star (1712)
9) Preordain (1706)
10) Terramorphic Expanse (1635)
11) Cloudpost (1584)
12) Journey to Nowhere (1584)
13) Glimmerpost (1584)
14) Kor Skyfisher (1558)
15) Razor Golem (1530)
16) Gitaxian Probe (1526)
17) Vines of Vastwood (1520)
18) Lone Missionary (1503)
19) Bonesplitter (1459)
20) Rancor (1396)
21) Prismatic Strands (1392)
22) Squadron Hawk (1360)
23) Icatian Javelineers (1353)
24) Glistener Elf (1332)
25) Ichorclaw Myr (1327)
26) Sign in Blood (1322)
27) Blight Mamba (1319)
28) Deep Analysis (1317)
29) Invigorate (1274)
30) Gorilla Shaman (1227)
31) Guardian of the Guildpact (1225)
32) Benevolent Bodyguard (1193)
33) Great Furnace (1189)
34) Prophetic Prism (1186)
35) Groundswell (1165)
36) Holy Light (1152)
37) Seat of the Synod (1145)
38) Thoughtcast (1119)
39) Myr Enforcer (1116)
40) Mutagenic Growth (1104)
41) Galvanic Blast (1101)
42) Echoing Decay (1099)
43) Atog (1093)
44) Dust to Dust (1088)
45) Vault of Whispers (1086)
46) Flame Slash (1074)
47) Condescend (1064)
48) Frogmite (1060)
49) Standard Bearer (1059)
50) Disciple of the Vault (1045)
51) Tree of Tales (1039)
52) Hornet Sting (1035)
53) Goblin Bushwhacker (1026)
54) Springleaf Drum (1025)
55) Chain Lightning (1009)
56) Leonin Skyhunter (1000)
57) Carapace Forger (1000)
58) Relic of Progenitus (987)
59) Counterspell (965)
60) Apostle's Blessing (956)
61) Sandstorm (935)
62) Serrated Arrows (930)
63) Seismic Shudder (883)
64) Nature's Claim (871)
65) Cloud of Faeries (868)
66) Manamorphose (862)
67) Rite of Flame (856)
68) Chittering Rats (848)
69) Empty the Warrens (837)
70) Echoing Truth (799)
71) Predator's Strike (783)
72) Snap (781)
73) Fog (781)
74) Phyrexian Rager (758)
75) Ravenous Rats (750)
76) Evolving Wilds (740)
77) Krark-Clan Shaman (726)
78) Tendrils of Corruption (723)
79) Stone Rain (720)
80) Mystical Teachings (719)
81) Flaring Pain (718)
82) Unmake (687)
83) Spellstutter Sprite (683)
84) Grapeshot (674)
85) Ancient Grudge (667)
86) Mogg Raider (667)
87) Crypt Rats (665)
88) Earth Rift (658)
89) Chromatic Sphere (655)
90) Goblin Sledder (653)
91) Mogg War Marshal (651)
92) Order of Leitbur (641)
93) Mana Leak (639)
94) Dark Ritual (634)
95) Corrupt (629)
96) Goblin Cohort (627)
97) Sulfur Vent (616)
98) Ninja of the Deep Hours (607)
99) Mogg Conscripts (606)
100) Cabal Ritual (605)